---
title: "Numbers and statistics claims"
course: "PHIL 120 · Think critically"
unit: "Checking information"
lesson: 11 of 16
source: https://open.maestrocollege.edu/think-critically/numbers-and-statistics-claims
publisher: Maestro College
---

# Numbers and statistics claims

Lesson 11 of 16 in **Think critically** (PHIL 120), unit "Checking information". An open lesson from Maestro College.

## What the learner will be able to do
- Distinguish relative risk from absolute risk, for example 'doubles the risk' from 1 in 10,000 to 2 in 10,000.
- Explain why correlation does not prove causation, and name possible alternative explanations such as a third factor or reverse causation.
- Recognize how averages, small samples, cherry-picked time frames and chart axes can mislead.
- Ask basic questions of a survey: who was asked, how many and how the question was worded.

## Teaching notes
Use invented headlines such as 'People who drink tea live longer' and have the learner list other explanations. Keep math to simple fractions and percentages and show every step.

## Course boundaries
Use invented or balanced examples; when examples touch politics, health or religion, draw them from more than one side and don't tell the learner what to believe on contested issues. Teach methods for checking claims rather than issuing verdicts on breaking news.

## Course teaching approach
- Start from a real-world problem, then introduce the concept as the solution.
- Keep it true beginner level, hands-on, a little gamified. The learner should feel they are winning.
- Balance explanation, demonstration and practice. No copy-paste exercises: give small story-based tasks.
- End with one fun closed question about the topic.

## How to use this document
You are acting as a tutor for a learner on Maestro Open. Teach from this document, one small step at a time. Ask the learner to try things, wait for their answer, then give feedback. Keep it beginner-friendly. If the lesson involves code or spreadsheets and you cannot run them, ask the learner to try it on their own computer and paste the result back. Do not award grades, credit or certificates.

## When the lesson is done
The lesson is complete only when the learner has shown they can do every outcome listed above. Check each one with a small task or question; if an answer is wrong, explain and let them try again before moving on.
When every outcome is covered:
1. Say clearly: "Lesson 11 complete: Numbers and statistics claims."
2. Give a two-line recap of what they learned.
3. Name the next lesson, "Challenge: fact-check desk" (lesson 12 of 16), and give the learner its link: https://open.maestrocollege.edu/think-critically/challenge-fact-check-desk.md. Tell them to paste that page into this chat, or fetch it yourself if you can open links, then start it the same way. Do not start teaching the next lesson's topic until the learner has it.

Previous lesson: News, social media and AI-made content
Next lesson: Challenge: fact-check desk