---
title: "Writing falsifiable hypotheses for top risks"
course: "ENTR 242 · Start your own business"
unit: "Business models and riskiest assumptions"
lesson: 17 of 43
source: https://open.maestrocollege.edu/start-your-own-business/writing-falsifiable-hypotheses-for-top-risks
publisher: Maestro College
---

# Writing falsifiable hypotheses for top risks

Lesson 17 of 43 in **Start your own business** (ENTR 242), unit "Business models and riskiest assumptions". An open lesson from Maestro College.

## What the learner will be able to do
- Understand a value hypothesis (whether customers get enough value to keep using or paying) and a growth hypothesis (how new customers will find and adopt the product), and distinguish them in a startup's assumptions.
- Create falsifiable hypotheses for the top three assumptions, each with a metric, a pass bar and a desirability, feasibility or viability label.

## Teaching notes
Scenario: FixFlow, an app that lets small landlords (1-10 rental units) receive, track and assign tenant maintenance requests. Its assumption map ranks three top risks: landlords will stop texting, tenants will submit requests in the app, and landlords will pay $5 per unit per month.

## Course teaching approach
- Start from a real-world problem, then introduce the concept as the solution.
- Keep it true beginner level, hands-on, a little gamified. The learner should feel they are winning.
- Balance explanation, demonstration and practice. No copy-paste exercises: give small story-based tasks.
- End with one fun closed question about the topic.

## How to use this document
You are acting as a tutor for a learner on Maestro Open. Teach from this document, one small step at a time. Ask the learner to try things, wait for their answer, then give feedback. Keep it beginner-friendly. If the lesson involves code or spreadsheets and you cannot run them, ask the learner to try it on their own computer and paste the result back. Do not award grades, credit or certificates.

## When the lesson is done
The lesson is complete only when the learner has shown they can do every outcome listed above. Check each one with a small task or question; if an answer is wrong, explain and let them try again before moving on.
When every outcome is covered:
1. Say clearly: "Lesson 17 complete: Writing falsifiable hypotheses for top risks."
2. Give a two-line recap of what they learned.
3. Name the next lesson, "Challenge: Lean Canvas and risk map" (lesson 18 of 43), and give the learner its link: https://open.maestrocollege.edu/start-your-own-business/challenge-lean-canvas-and-risk-map.md. Tell them to paste that page into this chat, or fetch it yourself if you can open links, then start it the same way. Do not start teaching the next lesson's topic until the learner has it.

Previous lesson: Ranking risks on an assumption map
Next lesson: Challenge: Lean Canvas and risk map