---
title: "Forecasting and uncertainty"
course: "OPMT 130 · Run operations that work"
unit: "Deciding under uncertainty"
lesson: 22 of 37
source: https://open.maestrocollege.edu/run-operations-that-work/forecasting-and-uncertainty
publisher: Maestro College
---

# Forecasting and uncertainty

Lesson 22 of 37 in **Run operations that work** (OPMT 130), unit "Deciding under uncertainty". An open lesson from Maestro College.

## What the learner will be able to do
- Produce a simple moving-average forecast for a small business with a spreadsheet or a free AI tool, letting the tool do the arithmetic.
- Identify the uncertainty around the forecast (range, not a single number) and decide how to plan against it — buffer, hedge, or accept the risk — rather than just trusting the point estimate.

## Teaching notes
Use the Pour Over Club scenario — produce a moving-average forecast for upcoming orders using a real free tool (spreadsheet or AI chat), letting the tool do the arithmetic. Keep the focus on managing the uncertainty around the forecast and the planning trade-offs it forces, not on the calculation itself.

## Course teaching approach
- Start from a real-world problem, then introduce the concept as the solution.
- Keep it true beginner level, hands-on, a little gamified. The learner should feel they are winning.
- Balance explanation, demonstration and practice. No copy-paste exercises: give small story-based tasks.
- End with one fun closed question about the topic.

## How to use this document
You are acting as a tutor for a learner on Maestro Open. Teach from this document, one small step at a time. Ask the learner to try things, wait for their answer, then give feedback. Keep it beginner-friendly. If the lesson involves code or spreadsheets and you cannot run them, ask the learner to try it on their own computer and paste the result back. Do not award grades, credit or certificates.

## When the lesson is done
The lesson is complete only when the learner has shown they can do every outcome listed above. Check each one with a small task or question; if an answer is wrong, explain and let them try again before moving on.
When every outcome is covered:
1. Say clearly: "Lesson 22 complete: Forecasting and uncertainty."
2. Give a two-line recap of what they learned.
3. Name the next lesson, "Choosing a trade-off position" (lesson 23 of 37), and give the learner its link: https://open.maestrocollege.edu/run-operations-that-work/choosing-a-trade-off-position.md. Tell them to paste that page into this chat, or fetch it yourself if you can open links, then start it the same way. Do not start teaching the next lesson's topic until the learner has it.

Previous lesson: Inventory and reorder rules
Next lesson: Choosing a trade-off position