---
title: "Challenge: forecast, decide, defend"
course: "OPMT 130 · Run operations that work"
unit: "Deciding under uncertainty"
lesson: 25 of 37
source: https://open.maestrocollege.edu/run-operations-that-work/challenge-forecast-decide-defend
publisher: Maestro College
---

# Challenge: forecast, decide, defend

Lesson 25 of 37 in **Run operations that work** (OPMT 130), unit "Deciding under uncertainty". An open lesson from Maestro College.

## What the learner will be able to do
- Given a realistic small-business demand scenario, run the full operational decision loop: frame the problem, gather one quantitative and one qualitative read, forecast demand with uncertainty, name the supply and capacity constraints, and recommend an operational response that names its trade-off position.
- Defend the recommendation in writing against at least one realistic counter-argument, citing one quantitative read and one AI-supported stress-test of your own thinking.
- Reflect on one specific moment from a small business you know where this unit's decision loop would have changed the outcome.

## Teaching notes
Use the Pour Over Club scenario — forecast next month's volume with uncertainty, name the supplier lead-time and inventory constraints, recommend an operational response, and defend the trade-off with one quantitative read and one AI-supported check.

## Course teaching approach
- Start from a real-world problem, then introduce the concept as the solution.
- Keep it true beginner level, hands-on, a little gamified. The learner should feel they are winning.
- Balance explanation, demonstration and practice. No copy-paste exercises: give small story-based tasks.
- End with one fun closed question about the topic.

## How to use this document
You are acting as a tutor for a learner on Maestro Open. Teach from this document, one small step at a time. Ask the learner to try things, wait for their answer, then give feedback. Keep it beginner-friendly. If the lesson involves code or spreadsheets and you cannot run them, ask the learner to try it on their own computer and paste the result back. Do not award grades, credit or certificates.

## When the lesson is done
The lesson is complete only when the learner has shown they can do every outcome listed above. Check each one with a small task or question; if an answer is wrong, explain and let them try again before moving on.
When every outcome is covered:
1. Say clearly: "Lesson 25 complete: Challenge: forecast, decide, defend."
2. Give a two-line recap of what they learned.
3. Name the next lesson, "Variability and the hidden cost" (lesson 26 of 37), and give the learner its link: https://open.maestrocollege.edu/run-operations-that-work/variability-and-the-hidden-cost.md. Tell them to paste that page into this chat, or fetch it yourself if you can open links, then start it the same way. Do not start teaching the next lesson's topic until the learner has it.

Previous lesson: AI as a decision co-pilot
Next lesson: Variability and the hidden cost