---
title: "Possible climate futures"
course: "ENVR 200 · Climate change, explained"
unit: "Impacts and choices"
lesson: 12 of 19
source: https://open.maestrocollege.edu/climate-change-explained/possible-climate-futures
publisher: Maestro College
---

# Possible climate futures

Lesson 12 of 19 in **Climate change, explained** (ENVR 200), unit "Impacts and choices". An open lesson from Maestro College.

## What the learner will be able to do
- Distinguish low-, medium-, and high-emission scenarios as conditional futures (not single predictions) for temperature and sea level by 2100.
- Recognize in plain language what a climate model is and why scenario outputs depend on one.
- Recognize that which future we get depends on choices that have not yet been made.
- Recognize that some Earth systems may respond nonlinearly to warming, with thresholds beyond which change accelerates or becomes difficult to reverse

## Teaching notes
Emphasize 'scenario, not prediction': futures branch on human choice. Sits after the impacts (u2l1-u2l2) so learners care first, then imagine futures; pivots the unit from consequence to the response lessons that follow.

## Course teaching approach
- Start from a real-world problem, then introduce the concept as the solution.
- Keep it true beginner level, hands-on, a little gamified. The learner should feel they are winning.
- Balance explanation, demonstration and practice. No copy-paste exercises: give small story-based tasks.
- End with one fun closed question about the topic.

## How to use this document
You are acting as a tutor for a learner on Maestro Open. Teach from this document, one small step at a time. Ask the learner to try things, wait for their answer, then give feedback. Keep it beginner-friendly. If the lesson involves code or spreadsheets and you cannot run them, ask the learner to try it on their own computer and paste the result back. Do not award grades, credit or certificates.

## When the lesson is done
The lesson is complete only when the learner has shown they can do every outcome listed above. Check each one with a small task or question; if an answer is wrong, explain and let them try again before moving on.
When every outcome is covered:
1. Say clearly: "Lesson 12 complete: Possible climate futures."
2. Give a two-line recap of what they learned.
3. Name the next lesson, "Cutting emissions" (lesson 13 of 19), and give the learner its link: https://open.maestrocollege.edu/climate-change-explained/cutting-emissions.md. Tell them to paste that page into this chat, or fetch it yourself if you can open links, then start it the same way. Do not start teaching the next lesson's topic until the learner has it.

Previous lesson: When the climate hits home
Next lesson: Cutting emissions